Like a thief in the night, the corona virus literally took everything in a snap.

That’s what the tourism industry perfectly feels now.

While China was desperately dealing with the virus and their sick and dead in the early months of 2020, most other countries were casually going about their usual things. Planes were full, theme parks and malls were bustling, and destination managers were positively excited with the future of their tourism industries. Tourism planning was one of their major tools to prepare and further develop their sites.

To come up with good recommendations, tourism planning relies heavily on data - visitor statistics, number of rooms, use or occupancy rates, and overall current conditions of the tourism industry in a destination.

And based on those data, projections will be made to ensure that the right amount of public and private investments could be encouraged or controlled in the destination. This is done to appropriately allocate limited resources and prevent waste of investment that could result to a glut in the number of rooms or putting expensive infrastructure in the wrong places.

But the corona virus dramatically changed everything. The tourism industry is basically in a coma in many countries now with the chances of full revival diminishing the longer it takes for the virus to be finally defeated. 

Most of the standard and reliable statistics suddenly become useless. You need a five-year tourist arrival data to get the growth rate? You can throw that away (not really, there’s still the appendix section). You need to project the number of rooms to be added to the destination? You’ll just feel stupid trying to come up with an imaginary number. 

From this day on, everything will start from scratch…. and assumptions. Almost everything has become an unknown - market demands, propensity to spend, even market characteristics may have even changed. We’re just not confidently sure of so many things anymore.

But what is certain is that tourism will eventually recover. Not right after the pandemic is over, but give it some months or (heaven help us) even a year. The main reason would be is that a large section of the travel market may be financially drained. A good number may have lost their jobs or businesses, and most do not have the required disposable income as an incentive to travel. Add to that, the fear or trauma to travel may take some time to wear off.

What may not change in tourism planning in the time of the corona virus are the characteristics of the destinations and the aspirations of the locals. 

Tourism planning may use those to bootstrap the revival of the tourism industry. Target market volumes can still be made based on the supply side to help those who are already invested to get back up the soonest. Tourist attractions can be better prepared for the eventual return of the number of visitors. And since the market attitude may change, such as social distancing and extreme health precautions, planned use of facilities may also have to be adjusted. 

It is actually a good time to develop tourism plans now that are focused on the responsible use of resources and not go back to what was normal and unsustainable. Yup, take this down time to look at the bigger picture of what an ideal tourism should be. Because it will definitely bounce back.

Author:
Caloy Libosada Jr.